No Atlantic hurricane season has ever had more than 2 named storms before the official June 1st start. There’s a chance we’ll have our third this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has issued a special tropical outlook today that indicates low pressure is forming over the Central Atlantic and has a 50 percent chance for tropical (or in this case, subtropical) development this weekend.
Unlike Arthur and Bertha, this system is not going to be a threat to any land as it tracks northwest and stays well east of Bermuda, eventually turning north and dissipating early next week. No big deal, right? Well it could be a big deal if the National Hurricane Center sees enough of a circulation and high enough satellite estimated wind that they upgrade it to a depression and then a storm.
The next name on the list is Cristobal. It’s not a slam dunk this will happen since a plane won’t get flown into it, satellite estimates are just estimates, and upgrading a circulation to a depression or storm is a consensus decision and needs to be agreed upon by scientists who may have varying understandings of what is going on. Plus the window for development is small as wind shear and cooler waters await by the end of the weekend.
But we at CWA think a record could be broken this weekend as a subtropical depression or storm is certainly on the table. Water temperatures aren’t that warm and the core of the circulation isn’t fully tropical, but models like the Canadian show some deepening of pressure, and Saturday night or early Sunday morning, the potential for 35 knot winds, which would officially tip the scale to minimal tropical storm wind.